How would you see these talks coming ahout? You wouldn't use the Constitutional Convention for this?
No, because you're eliminating the frish people. Any dialogue which takes place must take the form of community politics first. The community problems must be discussed. The so-called peace line must be discussed.
Working committees that can comm unicate with each other for many reasons on cach side of the peace line must be ormanised.
But isn't Britain going to hand over to the Loyalists through the Constitutional Convention?
From a public opinion point of view that's the one thing that Britain cannot afford to do. They cannot hand the North back to the status it had before. Because they are only going to leave a situation where there is going to be war. And nobody likes war except those who make money out of it. We don't want a civil war.
We don't sce the need for it. What we do see is the need for discussionbut with Britain out of it rather than in it. It's got to be a discussion among all the factions in Ireland, and not just in the Six County context, because there are problems in the 26 Counties too.
THE PRESENT CEASEFIRE in Ireland is now the longest since the war began -the last one in 1972 broke down after only thirteen days.
It is of courte extremely tragle.
And although we might see a further short extension, it is almost ruled out that it will be transformed into a more permanent truce.
Despite this, however, the whole undertaking marks a major turn on the part of the Provisionals - a response to the ongoing effects of the Loyalist strike in May 1974. In a number of ways, it has now become clear to the Provisionals that the British Army may indeed withdraw from Ireland but only to hand things back to the Loyalists, BRITISH HOPES However tortuous the initial contacts were, there is little doubt that it was the British Government that initiated the talks which lead to the ceasefire. The ollicial Provie view is that if was the sincerity of the Protestant church leaders which led the Provies to make such a positive res ponse. But few are really under the tusion that the church leaders were more than intermediaries for the British Government.
The British Government now Chunks that it has the measure of the Provies. It thinks that a few miserly concessions will draw them into a permanent truce. In such a context the Constitutional Convention might then produce a 'moderate power sharing bloc, which would make the outcome satisfactory to the Catholic middle class in the North and the Southern Irish ruling class.
PROVISIONALS
The Provisionals in their turn think that they have the upper hand militarily against the British armyespecially with the campalen in BriTain. But by placing the military question at the forefront of their thinking, the Provies are unable le assess the true balance of forces accurately and frankly.
To be sure, from the material and manpower point of view, the Provies are quite able to continue their campaign for some time yet. But the balance of forces is gradually moving against them and has been for the past two years. The war-weariness of the Catholic population, caused by the lack of uny clear perspective, has taken its toll.
This is pot to say that the overwhelming majority of the anti-tinionst people do not give tacit support ro the Provisionals. But politically, the Catholic population is under the inf duence of the Social Democratic und Labour Party.
So, in the Ardoyne for instance, which used to be a major stronghold of the Provies, nearly every window ovet the Christmas period boasted posters sporsored by the Catholic Church calling for peace. The nega tive impact of the Birmingham borabines has reinforced this fecling.
Any guerrilla campaign-depcoding as it does on the intimate, if pusave, support of the local population Brian Grogan explains the meat in politics to strenin politics would take their seats. very quickly feels such moods. It is this empirical recognition which the Provies are responding to. A ceaseJire, they reason, will at least give them time to win back their base in the ghettos--and the Provies are actwally enpaged in constructing community self-help projects to do this.
What is more, the Provisionals are beginning to see the need for involveathen their ties with the masses, Ruari O Bradaich, President of Sinn Fein, made a big point at their last Ard Fheis (conference) of the need to popularise the policies contained in their Eire Nur programme This is an important development for the Provisionals, who tend to look on politics as a corrupting intJuence in itself. Indeed, it was partly to overcome the fears of the rank-and-file on this score that John Joe MeGirl was sent up from the South last year to make a funeral orationfor which he was duly interned. As a veteran of many carlier IRA camp wens and a councillor in the South, he was to be the image of the Provic uncorrupted although participating Such a campaign would be nece ssary for the participation of the Pro- Provisionals. vies in clections -and the possibility of taking part in the Constitutional Convention elections as a way of popularising their programme is now under active consideration. Of course there is no question that they ceasefire in terms of 'peace', even under the rubric of 'Peace with Justice", is question is still the withdrawal of British troops.
Such a development by the Provisionals could be very positive. In calling their ceasefire, and putting out a call for a more permanent fruce, Lonist people outside British or collabthe Provisionals are groping towards an understanding of the need to romobilise the anti-Unionist population born out of the experience of the in the fight agrinse British imperialism. They are empirically realising that mass action also demands self-defence the bombing campaing is not doing that at the moment.
insolar as this signifies a move towards political action, the ceasetre could be a step forward.
However, posed in the way the Provisionals pose the question, the ceasefire could he a serious setback.
It is a complete self-delusion to think that the Provisionals are on the point of kicking out the British army, or are even in a position to dictate terms to the British Government.
Not only is that not the case, but it is the Loyalists who are riling the toost at the moment.
In this situation the British Govemiment is hardly likely to go out on a limb for the Provisionals. The Loyalists have already knocked out the tentatives noves towards accom modation with the Southern Irish rul ing class. And it Rees cannot have them, then he would much rather plump for the Loyalists than for the MASS ACTION This is the present drift of British policy at the moment. Rather than toying with the wild notion that Beitain is about to be kicked out by their al concession to the reformists. It bombing campaign, the Provies should is the SDLP which has been organhe seriously preparine the anti-Unionlast year. a serious political concession to the reformists of the SDLP. The really cruciat need for a political response will ists for such a hand over.
A fight against this policy will te quire the mobilisation of the anti-Unorationist institutions, and the creatIon of allernative organs of power mass struggle, Such a perspective of and armed action not simply the self defence proclaimed by the Officials against attacks, but the defence of offensive mass actions.
Even the small scale actions after the burning of Long Kesh were brutally repressed by the army. So one can imagine what would happen to actions whuch were a greater threat to the state. Calling a blanket cease fire excludes the possibility of organising such actions ARMY OUT -NOW What is more, this fantastic over estimation of the balance of forces is leading the Provisonals to make great concessions to the British Gov ernment. To talk ahout the British army staying one more day on Irish soil, let alone two years as Seamus Loughran does in the accompanying interview, covers over what the British army iractually up to-stren gthening the hand of the Loyalists. Purt of proparing the anti-Unionist population for a hand over is to explain this crucial role of the British army.
Finally, to pose the ceasefire in terns of "peace" is a serious politic ising under this slogan, and for the Provisionals to give credence to iteven under the rubric of "Peace with Justice -gives political credibility Do these forces, The really crucial question is still the withdrawal of British troogs, WHAT NOW?
The possibility that the British Government will give concessions to the Provisonals sulticient to socure a permanent truce ate non-existent. Even the fact of the talks had led to an uproar amongst the Loyalists, and any concessions would create a mobilisation of the type seen during the Loyalist general strike Glen Bart, who led this strike and is a great hope of the Provisionals as a 'working class leader" . says that we will not stand by and allow Mr. Rees to step on the people of Ulster by making concessions to the Provies. The UDA has promised a campaign of violence, and already there have been two sectarian bombings by the Loyalists.
Without doubt the Provisionals could restart their bombing campaign. But it would of course he much more difficult politically after having called che ceasefire. This may mean that the Provisionals will maintain the crasefire in the Six Counties for a while longer but restart the borbing campaign in Bri tain. But in any case the signifi cance of the break-down of the ceasefire will nut he lost on the Tanks of the Provisionals as the become increasingly obvious
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SET HOUSERS TERE Provisional Republican picket in Dublin just before Christmas — to puse the